Diabetes Medicine Intelligence — Pakistan

Generated 2026-08-01T22:55:00.793011 · 75 molecules mapped

Market Calibration (IQVIA Q1 2025 Ground-Truth)

Metric	Value
Total Market Value	1.049 trillion PKR ($3.77B)
Unit Sales (Q1)	3.77 billion units (+3.63% YoY, +5.49% CAGR)
CAGR 2021-2025	+19.09%
NAT/MNC Split	NATs: 816.74 billion PKR (+21.07% YoY, +20.44% CAGR) \| MNCs: 232.49 billion PKR (+19.04% YoY, +14.88% CAGR)
Price vs Volume Growth	60% of growth from price hikes, not volume

Ferozsons 2025 Benchmark

Revenue	PKR 13.858 billion
Net Profit	PKR 528 million
Net Margin	3.8%
Brands	130+
Market Cap	PKR 16.937 billion

Calibration factor: 4.5 applied to all demand proxy estimates. Demand type: Annualized unit estimates scaled to IQVIA Q1 baseline

Unit definition: Annual units per molecule category (proxy demand, not confirmed sales)

Top Molecules by Crowding

Molecule	Brands	Companies	Essential	Crowded
Metformin	563	154	✓	✓
Empagliflozin	295	55	✓	✓
Glimepiride	191	100		✓
Sitagliptin	178	69		✓
Gliclazide	109	54	✓	✓
Pioglitazone	106	59		✓
Vildagliptin	75	34
Glibenclamide	62	43	✓
Dapagliflozin	48	14	✓
Human Insulin	40	10

Launch Opportunity Shortlist

Molecule	Score	Confidence	Supply Gap	Price Room
Insulin Degludec	78	100%	85	100
Insulin Lispro Protamine	66	90%	60	100
Recombinent Insulin Glargine 100 Units	59	65%	60	100
Glimepride Metformin	59	65%	60	100
Glimepiride 2mgmetforminhcl	59	65%	60	100
Insulin Lispro	57	90%	40	100
Rdna Insulin Glargine	56	90%	60	58
Recombinanthumaninsulin	53	90%	60	48
Gliclazide	51	100%	45	100
Insulin Glargine	51	100%	25	100
Dapagliflozin Propanediol	49	90%	40	65
Recombinant Human Insulin Isophane	48	65%	60	48
Human Recombinant Insulin	48	90%	60	25
Recombinanthumaninsulin1000iu	48	65%	60	48
Dapagliflozin	47	100%	25	100

Launch Simulator (Monte Carlo, 10 000 draws)

All assumptions printed below — assumptions shown = credibility; assumptions hidden = snake oil.

Competitor response: each existing brand has a 30% chance of cutting price by 10-25% in response to a new entrant (based on observed DVAGO price-volatility patterns).

Price elasticity: demand scales linearly with price difference vs median category price (simplified; real elasticity requires time-series data).

Market size: total addressable units = sum of all brand pack-sizes × estimated annual velocity (conservative: 1 strip/month per brand).

Regulatory: 6-month approval lag assumed; no DRAP ceiling breach risk modelled (all prices compared against ceiling).

No real sales data used — all volumes are demand-proxy estimates.

Molecule	Brands	Viable Band %	Loss-Leader %	Supply Gap
Glimepiride	191	0.0%	100.0%	0
Gliclazide	109	0.0%	100.0%	45
Metformin	563	0.0%	100.0%	25
Glibenclamide	62	0.0%	100.0%	25
Insulin Lispro	7	75.0%	23.8%	40
Isophane Insulin	21	17.1%	82.9%	0
Human Insulin	40	0.6%	99.4%	0
Bovine Insulin	6	79.9%	18.5%	40
Insulin	20	19.4%	80.6%	0
Glipizide	7	75.8%	23.2%	12
Insulin Regular	5	84.3%	13.8%	12
Pioglitazone	106	0.0%	100.0%	0
Insulin Glargine	14	40.0%	60.0%	25
Insulin Aspart	4	88.1%	9.0%	40
Insulin Detemir	5	84.6%	13.1%	50
Soluble Insulin	2	91.7%	2.1%	40

Demand Proxy Engine (Honest Ranges)

Low / base / high estimates — not real sales. All assumptions shown. Calibrated against IQVIA Q1 2025 data.

Molecule	Low	Base	High	Confidence	Calibrated	Why
Glimepiride	171,900	429,750	1,504,125	high	✓	191 brands x 500 units/brand/month base \| IQVIA-calibrated: Q1 2025 market=3.77B units, 4.5x scaling; spread=100, gap=0, crowded=1, essential=0
Gliclazide	98,100	245,250	858,375	high	✓	109 brands x 500 units/brand/month base \| IQVIA-calibrated: Q1 2025 market=3.77B units, 4.5x scaling; spread=100, gap=45, crowded=1, essential=1
Metformin	506,700	1,266,750	4,433,625	high	✓	563 brands x 500 units/brand/month base \| IQVIA-calibrated: Q1 2025 market=3.77B units, 4.5x scaling; spread=100, gap=25, crowded=1, essential=1
Glibenclamide	55,800	139,500	488,250	medium	✓	62 brands x 500 units/brand/month base \| IQVIA-calibrated: Q1 2025 market=3.77B units, 4.5x scaling; spread=100, gap=25, crowded=0, essential=1
Insulin Lispro	6,300	15,750	55,125	low	✓	7 brands x 500 units/brand/month base \| IQVIA-calibrated: Q1 2025 market=3.77B units, 4.5x scaling; spread=100, gap=40, crowded=0, essential=0
Isophane Insulin	18,900	47,250	165,375	medium	✓	21 brands x 500 units/brand/month base \| IQVIA-calibrated: Q1 2025 market=3.77B units, 4.5x scaling; spread=100, gap=0, crowded=0, essential=0
Human Regular Insulin	1,800	4,500	6,750	low	✓	2 brands x 500 units/brand/month base \| IQVIA-calibrated: Q1 2025 market=3.77B units, 4.5x scaling; spread=0, gap=60, crowded=0, essential=0
Human Insulin	36,000	90,000	315,000	medium	✓	40 brands x 500 units/brand/month base \| IQVIA-calibrated: Q1 2025 market=3.77B units, 4.5x scaling; spread=100, gap=0, crowded=0, essential=0
Bovine Insulin	5,400	13,500	20,250	low	✓	6 brands x 500 units/brand/month base \| IQVIA-calibrated: Q1 2025 market=3.77B units, 4.5x scaling; spread=0, gap=40, crowded=0, essential=0
Insulin	18,000	45,000	157,500	medium	✓	20 brands x 500 units/brand/month base \| IQVIA-calibrated: Q1 2025 market=3.77B units, 4.5x scaling; spread=100, gap=0, crowded=0, essential=0
Glipizide	6,300	15,750	23,625	low	✓	7 brands x 500 units/brand/month base \| IQVIA-calibrated: Q1 2025 market=3.77B units, 4.5x scaling; spread=0, gap=12, crowded=0, essential=0
Galactose Microparticles	1,800	4,500	6,750	low	✓	2 brands x 500 units/brand/month base \| IQVIA-calibrated: Q1 2025 market=3.77B units, 4.5x scaling; spread=0, gap=40, crowded=0, essential=0
Lactoserum	900	2,250	3,375	low	✓	1 brands x 500 units/brand/month base \| IQVIA-calibrated: Q1 2025 market=3.77B units, 4.5x scaling; spread=0, gap=60, crowded=0, essential=0
Insulin Regular	4,500	11,250	23,625	low	✓	5 brands x 500 units/brand/month base \| IQVIA-calibrated: Q1 2025 market=3.77B units, 4.5x scaling; spread=30, gap=12, crowded=0, essential=0
Pioglitazone	95,400	238,500	834,750	high	✓	106 brands x 500 units/brand/month base \| IQVIA-calibrated: Q1 2025 market=3.77B units, 4.5x scaling; spread=100, gap=0, crowded=1, essential=0
Insulin Glargine	12,600	31,500	110,250	medium	✓	14 brands x 500 units/brand/month base \| IQVIA-calibrated: Q1 2025 market=3.77B units, 4.5x scaling; spread=100, gap=25, crowded=0, essential=1
Insulin Aspart	3,600	9,000	13,500	low	✓	4 brands x 500 units/brand/month base \| IQVIA-calibrated: Q1 2025 market=3.77B units, 4.5x scaling; spread=0, gap=40, crowded=0, essential=0
Insulin Aspart Protamine	900	2,250	3,375	low	✓	1 brands x 500 units/brand/month base \| IQVIA-calibrated: Q1 2025 market=3.77B units, 4.5x scaling; spread=0, gap=60, crowded=0, essential=0
Insulin Detemir	4,500	11,250	17,100	low	✓	5 brands x 500 units/brand/month base \| IQVIA-calibrated: Q1 2025 market=3.77B units, 4.5x scaling; spread=1, gap=50, crowded=0, essential=1
Soluble Insulin	1,800	4,500	10,710	low	✓	2 brands x 500 units/brand/month base \| IQVIA-calibrated: Q1 2025 market=3.77B units, 4.5x scaling; spread=44, gap=40, crowded=0, essential=0
Insulin Lispro Protamine	3,600	9,000	31,500	low	✓	4 brands x 500 units/brand/month base \| IQVIA-calibrated: Q1 2025 market=3.77B units, 4.5x scaling; spread=100, gap=60, crowded=0, essential=0
Sitagliptin	160,200	400,500	1,401,750	high	✓	178 brands x 500 units/brand/month base \| IQVIA-calibrated: Q1 2025 market=3.77B units, 4.5x scaling; spread=100, gap=0, crowded=1, essential=0
Vildagliptin	67,500	168,750	590,625	medium	✓	75 brands x 500 units/brand/month base \| IQVIA-calibrated: Q1 2025 market=3.77B units, 4.5x scaling; spread=100, gap=0, crowded=0, essential=0
Empagliflozin	265,500	663,750	2,323,125	high	✓	295 brands x 500 units/brand/month base \| IQVIA-calibrated: Q1 2025 market=3.77B units, 4.5x scaling; spread=100, gap=25, crowded=1, essential=1
Lactose	1,800	4,500	6,750	low	✓	2 brands x 500 units/brand/month base \| IQVIA-calibrated: Q1 2025 market=3.77B units, 4.5x scaling; spread=0, gap=40, crowded=0, essential=0
Galactose	900	2,250	3,375	low	✓	1 brands x 500 units/brand/month base \| IQVIA-calibrated: Q1 2025 market=3.77B units, 4.5x scaling; spread=0, gap=60, crowded=0, essential=0
Dapagliflozin	43,200	108,000	378,000	medium	✓	48 brands x 500 units/brand/month base \| IQVIA-calibrated: Q1 2025 market=3.77B units, 4.5x scaling; spread=100, gap=25, crowded=0, essential=1
Linagliptin	33,300	83,250	291,375	medium	✓	37 brands x 500 units/brand/month base \| IQVIA-calibrated: Q1 2025 market=3.77B units, 4.5x scaling; spread=100, gap=0, crowded=0, essential=0
Insulin Degludec	2,700	6,750	23,625	low	✓	3 brands x 500 units/brand/month base \| IQVIA-calibrated: Q1 2025 market=3.77B units, 4.5x scaling; spread=100, gap=85, crowded=0, essential=1
Sulfonylureas	900	2,250	3,375	low	✓	1 brands x 500 units/brand/month base \| IQVIA-calibrated: Q1 2025 market=3.77B units, 4.5x scaling; spread=0, gap=85, crowded=0, essential=1
Isophane Insulin Human	3,600	9,000	13,500	low	✓	4 brands x 500 units/brand/month base \| IQVIA-calibrated: Q1 2025 market=3.77B units, 4.5x scaling; spread=0, gap=40, crowded=0, essential=0
Human Insulin Isophane	3,600	9,000	14,580	low	✓	4 brands x 500 units/brand/month base \| IQVIA-calibrated: Q1 2025 market=3.77B units, 4.5x scaling; spread=6, gap=40, crowded=0, essential=0
Human Insulin Regular	7,200	18,000	42,480	low	✓	8 brands x 500 units/brand/month base \| IQVIA-calibrated: Q1 2025 market=3.77B units, 4.5x scaling; spread=43, gap=40, crowded=0, essential=0
Insulin Human Isophane	1,800	4,500	6,750	low	✓	2 brands x 500 units/brand/month base \| IQVIA-calibrated: Q1 2025 market=3.77B units, 4.5x scaling; spread=0, gap=60, crowded=0, essential=0
Insulin Human Regular	1,800	4,500	6,750	low	✓	2 brands x 500 units/brand/month base \| IQVIA-calibrated: Q1 2025 market=3.77B units, 4.5x scaling; spread=0, gap=60, crowded=0, essential=0
Insulin Isophane Human	900	2,250	3,375	low	✓	1 brands x 500 units/brand/month base \| IQVIA-calibrated: Q1 2025 market=3.77B units, 4.5x scaling; spread=0, gap=60, crowded=0, essential=0
Conjugatedestrogensusp Desiccatedwithlactoseat	900	2,250	3,375	low	✓	1 brands x 500 units/brand/month base \| IQVIA-calibrated: Q1 2025 market=3.77B units, 4.5x scaling; spread=0, gap=60, crowded=0, essential=0
Regularrecombinanthumaninsulin	1,800	4,500	6,750	low	✓	2 brands x 500 units/brand/month base \| IQVIA-calibrated: Q1 2025 market=3.77B units, 4.5x scaling; spread=0, gap=60, crowded=0, essential=0
Recombinanthumaninsulin	2,700	6,750	16,605	low	✓	3 brands x 500 units/brand/month base \| IQVIA-calibrated: Q1 2025 market=3.77B units, 4.5x scaling; spread=48, gap=60, crowded=0, essential=0
Recombinant Human Insulin Isophane	1,800	4,500	11,070	low	✓	2 brands x 500 units/brand/month base \| IQVIA-calibrated: Q1 2025 market=3.77B units, 4.5x scaling; spread=48, gap=60, crowded=0, essential=0
Human Recombinant Insulin	5,400	13,500	27,000	low	✓	6 brands x 500 units/brand/month base \| IQVIA-calibrated: Q1 2025 market=3.77B units, 4.5x scaling; spread=25, gap=60, crowded=0, essential=0
Regular Human Insulin	1,800	4,500	6,750	low	✓	2 brands x 500 units/brand/month base \| IQVIA-calibrated: Q1 2025 market=3.77B units, 4.5x scaling; spread=0, gap=60, crowded=0, essential=0
Nph Human Insulin	1,800	4,500	6,750	low	✓	2 brands x 500 units/brand/month base \| IQVIA-calibrated: Q1 2025 market=3.77B units, 4.5x scaling; spread=0, gap=60, crowded=0, essential=0
Pioglitazone 15	2,700	6,750	10,260	low	✓	3 brands x 500 units/brand/month base \| IQVIA-calibrated: Q1 2025 market=3.77B units, 4.5x scaling; spread=1, gap=60, crowded=0, essential=0
Metforminashcl	900	2,250	3,375	low	✓	1 brands x 500 units/brand/month base \| IQVIA-calibrated: Q1 2025 market=3.77B units, 4.5x scaling; spread=0, gap=60, crowded=0, essential=0
Metforminhcl	900	2,250	3,375	low	✓	1 brands x 500 units/brand/month base \| IQVIA-calibrated: Q1 2025 market=3.77B units, 4.5x scaling; spread=0, gap=60, crowded=0, essential=0
Insulin Human	1,800	4,500	6,750	low	✓	2 brands x 500 units/brand/month base \| IQVIA-calibrated: Q1 2025 market=3.77B units, 4.5x scaling; spread=0, gap=60, crowded=0, essential=0
Each Ml Humalin Insulin	1,800	4,500	6,750	low	✓	2 brands x 500 units/brand/month base \| IQVIA-calibrated: Q1 2025 market=3.77B units, 4.5x scaling; spread=0, gap=40, crowded=0, essential=0
Recombinent Insulin Glargine	900	2,250	3,375	low	✓	1 brands x 500 units/brand/month base \| IQVIA-calibrated: Q1 2025 market=3.77B units, 4.5x scaling; spread=0, gap=60, crowded=0, essential=0
Metformin Hci	7,200	18,000	45,720	low	✓	8 brands x 500 units/brand/month base \| IQVIA-calibrated: Q1 2025 market=3.77B units, 4.5x scaling; spread=52, gap=12, crowded=0, essential=0
Rdna Insulin Glargine	2,700	6,750	17,955	low	✓	3 brands x 500 units/brand/month base \| IQVIA-calibrated: Q1 2025 market=3.77B units, 4.5x scaling; spread=58, gap=60, crowded=0, essential=0
Recombinant Insulin Lispro	900	2,250	3,375	low	✓	1 brands x 500 units/brand/month base \| IQVIA-calibrated: Q1 2025 market=3.77B units, 4.5x scaling; spread=0, gap=60, crowded=0, essential=0
Dapagliflozin Propanediol	4,500	11,250	31,499	low	✓	5 brands x 500 units/brand/month base \| IQVIA-calibrated: Q1 2025 market=3.77B units, 4.5x scaling; spread=65, gap=40, crowded=0, essential=0
Recombinanthumaninsulin1000iu	1,800	4,500	11,070	low	✓	2 brands x 500 units/brand/month base \| IQVIA-calibrated: Q1 2025 market=3.77B units, 4.5x scaling; spread=48, gap=60, crowded=0, essential=0
Regularrecombinanthumaninsulin1000iu	900	2,250	3,375	low	✓	1 brands x 500 units/brand/month base \| IQVIA-calibrated: Q1 2025 market=3.77B units, 4.5x scaling; spread=0, gap=60, crowded=0, essential=0
Human Insulin Anti Diabetic Human Insu	900	2,250	3,375	low	✓	1 brands x 500 units/brand/month base \| IQVIA-calibrated: Q1 2025 market=3.77B units, 4.5x scaling; spread=0, gap=60, crowded=0, essential=0
Insulin Degludec 300 Units	900	2,250	3,375	low	✓	1 brands x 500 units/brand/month base \| IQVIA-calibrated: Q1 2025 market=3.77B units, 4.5x scaling; spread=0, gap=60, crowded=0, essential=0
Recombinent Insulin Glargine 100 Units	900	2,250	7,875	low	✓	1 brands x 500 units/brand/month base \| IQVIA-calibrated: Q1 2025 market=3.77B units, 4.5x scaling; spread=100, gap=60, crowded=0, essential=0
Metformin 1 Gm	5,400	13,500	31,589	low	✓	6 brands x 500 units/brand/month base \| IQVIA-calibrated: Q1 2025 market=3.77B units, 4.5x scaling; spread=42, gap=0, crowded=0, essential=0
Insulin Isophane Human Suspension 70 Insulin Human Regular	900	2,250	3,375	low	✓	1 brands x 500 units/brand/month base \| IQVIA-calibrated: Q1 2025 market=3.77B units, 4.5x scaling; spread=0, gap=60, crowded=0, essential=0
Insulin Biphasic Isophane 70	900	2,250	3,375	low	✓	1 brands x 500 units/brand/month base \| IQVIA-calibrated: Q1 2025 market=3.77B units, 4.5x scaling; spread=0, gap=60, crowded=0, essential=0
Insulin Human 100 I U	1,800	4,500	6,750	low	✓	2 brands x 500 units/brand/month base \| IQVIA-calibrated: Q1 2025 market=3.77B units, 4.5x scaling; spread=0, gap=60, crowded=0, essential=0
Metforminhcl 500mgrosiglitazoneasmaleate	900	2,250	3,375	low	✓	1 brands x 500 units/brand/month base \| IQVIA-calibrated: Q1 2025 market=3.77B units, 4.5x scaling; spread=0, gap=60, crowded=0, essential=0
Metforminashcl 500mgrosiglitazoneasmaleate	900	2,250	3,375	low	✓	1 brands x 500 units/brand/month base \| IQVIA-calibrated: Q1 2025 market=3.77B units, 4.5x scaling; spread=0, gap=60, crowded=0, essential=0
Recombinant Human Insulin	900	2,250	3,375	low	✓	1 brands x 500 units/brand/month base \| IQVIA-calibrated: Q1 2025 market=3.77B units, 4.5x scaling; spread=0, gap=60, crowded=0, essential=0
Regular Recombinant Human Insulin	900	2,250	3,375	low	✓	1 brands x 500 units/brand/month base \| IQVIA-calibrated: Q1 2025 market=3.77B units, 4.5x scaling; spread=0, gap=60, crowded=0, essential=0
Glimepride Metformin	900	2,250	7,875	low	✓	1 brands x 500 units/brand/month base \| IQVIA-calibrated: Q1 2025 market=3.77B units, 4.5x scaling; spread=100, gap=60, crowded=0, essential=0
Glimepiride 2mgmetforminhcl	900	2,250	7,875	low	✓	1 brands x 500 units/brand/month base \| IQVIA-calibrated: Q1 2025 market=3.77B units, 4.5x scaling; spread=100, gap=60, crowded=0, essential=0
Recombinant Insulin Lispro 100 Units	900	2,250	3,375	low	✓	1 brands x 500 units/brand/month base \| IQVIA-calibrated: Q1 2025 market=3.77B units, 4.5x scaling; spread=0, gap=60, crowded=0, essential=0
Metformin Mg	1,800	4,500	7,560	low	✓	2 brands x 500 units/brand/month base \| IQVIA-calibrated: Q1 2025 market=3.77B units, 4.5x scaling; spread=9, gap=40, crowded=0, essential=0
Galactosidase Enzyme	900	2,250	3,375	low	✓	1 brands x 500 units/brand/month base \| IQVIA-calibrated: Q1 2025 market=3.77B units, 4.5x scaling; spread=0, gap=60, crowded=0, essential=0
Insulin Glulisine	900	2,250	3,375	low	✓	1 brands x 500 units/brand/month base \| IQVIA-calibrated: Q1 2025 market=3.77B units, 4.5x scaling; spread=0, gap=60, crowded=0, essential=0
Insulin Soluble	2,700	6,750	19,170	low	✓	3 brands x 500 units/brand/month base \| IQVIA-calibrated: Q1 2025 market=3.77B units, 4.5x scaling; spread=67, gap=25, crowded=0, essential=0
Insulin Nph	3,600	9,000	15,300	low	✓	4 brands x 500 units/brand/month base \| IQVIA-calibrated: Q1 2025 market=3.77B units, 4.5x scaling; spread=10, gap=12, crowded=0, essential=0
Protamine Insulin Aspart	900	2,250	3,375	low	✓	1 brands x 500 units/brand/month base \| IQVIA-calibrated: Q1 2025 market=3.77B units, 4.5x scaling; spread=0, gap=60, crowded=0, essential=0