Pain Medicine Intelligence — Pakistan

Generated 2026-08-01T22:55:04.670903 · 48 molecules mapped

Market Calibration (IQVIA Q1 2025 Ground-Truth)

MetricValue
Total Market Value1.049 trillion PKR ($3.77B)
Unit Sales (Q1)3.77 billion units (+3.63% YoY, +5.49% CAGR)
CAGR 2021-2025+19.09%
NAT/MNC SplitNATs: 816.74 billion PKR (+21.07% YoY, +20.44% CAGR) | MNCs: 232.49 billion PKR (+19.04% YoY, +14.88% CAGR)
Price vs Volume Growth60% of growth from price hikes, not volume

Ferozsons 2025 Benchmark

RevenuePKR 13.858 billion
Net ProfitPKR 528 million
Net Margin3.8%
Brands130+
Market CapPKR 16.937 billion

Calibration factor: 4.5 applied to all demand proxy estimates. Demand type: Annualized unit estimates scaled to IQVIA Q1 baseline

Unit definition: Annual units per molecule category (proxy demand, not confirmed sales)

Top Molecules by Crowding

MoleculeBrandsCompaniesEssentialCrowded
Paracetamol1023358✓✓
Diclofenac609293✓
Ibuprofen536242✓✓
Diclofenac Sodium277139✓
Piroxicam243176✓
Aspirin217108✓
Naproxen201149✓
Mefenamic Acid156116✓
Piroxicam Beta Cyclodextrin12596✓
Celecoxib8169

Launch Opportunity Shortlist

MoleculeScoreConfidenceSupply GapPrice Room
Aspirin Crystalline7165%80100
Ibuprofen 1005965%60100
Ibuprofen 400 05965%60100
Ibuprofen 8005965%60100
Paracetamol58100%45100
Paracetamol Codeine 5005890%40100
Paracetamol Mg5265%40100
Ibuprofen49100%45100
Naproxen B P4965%6054
Aspirin4690%20100
Ibuprofen Lysine4690%6016
Each Gm Naproxen4065%6011
Diclofenac3790%20100
Mefenamic Acid3790%20100
Diclofenac Sodium3790%20100

Launch Simulator (Monte Carlo, 10 000 draws)

All assumptions printed below — assumptions shown = credibility; assumptions hidden = snake oil.

  • Competitor response: each existing brand has a 30% chance of cutting price by 10-25% in response to a new entrant (based on observed DVAGO price-volatility patterns).
  • Price elasticity: demand scales linearly with price difference vs median category price (simplified; real elasticity requires time-series data).
  • Market size: total addressable units = sum of all brand pack-sizes × estimated annual velocity (conservative: 1 strip/month per brand).
  • Regulatory: 6-month approval lag assumed; no DRAP ceiling breach risk modelled (all prices compared against ceiling).
  • No real sales data used — all volumes are demand-proxy estimates.
    • MoleculeBrandsViable Band %Loss-Leader %Supply Gap
    Diclofenac6090.0%100.0%20
    Paracetamol10230.0%100.0%45
    Naproxen2010.0%100.0%0
    Mefenamic Acid1560.0%100.0%20
    Ibuprofen5360.0%100.0%45
    Piroxicam2430.0%100.0%0
    Aspirin2170.0%100.0%20
    Ketoprofen352.0%98.0%0
    Diclofenac Diethylammonium1727.8%72.2%0
    Papain1249.2%50.6%0
    Diclofenac Sodium2770.0%100.0%20
    Celecoxib810.0%100.0%0
    Dexibuprofen2510.2%89.8%20
    Diclofenac Free Acid391.1%5.1%25
    Piroxicam Beta Cyclodextrin1250.0%100.0%0
    Dexketoprofen487.8%9.2%25
    Diclofenac Potassium760.0%100.0%0
    Ibuprofen 100291.8%2.2%60

    Demand Proxy Engine (Honest Ranges)

    Low / base / high estimates — not real sales. All assumptions shown. Calibrated against IQVIA Q1 2025 data.

    MoleculeLowBaseHighConfidenceCalibratedWhy
    Diclofenac548,1001,370,2504,795,875high✓609 brands x 500 units/brand/month base | IQVIA-calibrated: Q1 2025 market=3.77B units, 4.5x scaling; spread=100, gap=20, crowded=1, essential=0
    Paracetamol920,7002,301,7508,056,125high✓1023 brands x 500 units/brand/month base | IQVIA-calibrated: Q1 2025 market=3.77B units, 4.5x scaling; spread=100, gap=45, crowded=1, essential=1
    Naproxen180,900452,2501,582,875high✓201 brands x 500 units/brand/month base | IQVIA-calibrated: Q1 2025 market=3.77B units, 4.5x scaling; spread=100, gap=0, crowded=1, essential=0
    Mefenamic Acid140,400351,0001,228,500high✓156 brands x 500 units/brand/month base | IQVIA-calibrated: Q1 2025 market=3.77B units, 4.5x scaling; spread=100, gap=20, crowded=1, essential=0
    Ibuprofen482,4001,206,0004,221,000high✓536 brands x 500 units/brand/month base | IQVIA-calibrated: Q1 2025 market=3.77B units, 4.5x scaling; spread=100, gap=45, crowded=1, essential=1
    Piroxicam218,700546,7501,913,625high✓243 brands x 500 units/brand/month base | IQVIA-calibrated: Q1 2025 market=3.77B units, 4.5x scaling; spread=100, gap=0, crowded=1, essential=0
    Aspirin195,300488,2501,708,875high✓217 brands x 500 units/brand/month base | IQVIA-calibrated: Q1 2025 market=3.77B units, 4.5x scaling; spread=100, gap=20, crowded=1, essential=0
    Ketoprofen31,50078,750212,625medium✓35 brands x 500 units/brand/month base | IQVIA-calibrated: Q1 2025 market=3.77B units, 4.5x scaling; spread=60, gap=0, crowded=0, essential=0
    Diclofenac Diethylammonium15,30038,250110,925medium✓17 brands x 500 units/brand/month base | IQVIA-calibrated: Q1 2025 market=3.77B units, 4.5x scaling; spread=70, gap=0, crowded=0, essential=0
    Papain10,80027,00062,099medium✓12 brands x 500 units/brand/month base | IQVIA-calibrated: Q1 2025 market=3.77B units, 4.5x scaling; spread=40, gap=0, crowded=0, essential=0
    Diclofenac Sodium249,300623,2502,181,375high✓277 brands x 500 units/brand/month base | IQVIA-calibrated: Q1 2025 market=3.77B units, 4.5x scaling; spread=100, gap=20, crowded=1, essential=0
    Celecoxib72,900182,250637,875medium✓81 brands x 500 units/brand/month base | IQVIA-calibrated: Q1 2025 market=3.77B units, 4.5x scaling; spread=100, gap=0, crowded=0, essential=0
    Dexibuprofen22,50056,250111,375medium✓25 brands x 500 units/brand/month base | IQVIA-calibrated: Q1 2025 market=3.77B units, 4.5x scaling; spread=24, gap=20, crowded=0, essential=0
    Diclofenac Free Acid2,7006,75010,125low✓3 brands x 500 units/brand/month base | IQVIA-calibrated: Q1 2025 market=3.77B units, 4.5x scaling; spread=0, gap=25, crowded=0, essential=0
    Piroxicam Beta Cyclodextrin112,500281,250984,375high✓125 brands x 500 units/brand/month base | IQVIA-calibrated: Q1 2025 market=3.77B units, 4.5x scaling; spread=100, gap=0, crowded=1, essential=0
    Dexketoprofen3,6009,00013,500low✓4 brands x 500 units/brand/month base | IQVIA-calibrated: Q1 2025 market=3.77B units, 4.5x scaling; spread=0, gap=25, crowded=0, essential=0
    Diclofenac Potassium68,400171,000598,500medium✓76 brands x 500 units/brand/month base | IQVIA-calibrated: Q1 2025 market=3.77B units, 4.5x scaling; spread=100, gap=0, crowded=0, essential=0
    Analgesics9002,2503,375low✓1 brands x 500 units/brand/month base | IQVIA-calibrated: Q1 2025 market=3.77B units, 4.5x scaling; spread=0, gap=85, crowded=0, essential=1
    Naproxen B P U S P1,8004,5006,750low✓2 brands x 500 units/brand/month base | IQVIA-calibrated: Q1 2025 market=3.77B units, 4.5x scaling; spread=0, gap=60, crowded=0, essential=0
    Ibuprofen 1001,8004,50015,750low✓2 brands x 500 units/brand/month base | IQVIA-calibrated: Q1 2025 market=3.77B units, 4.5x scaling; spread=100, gap=60, crowded=0, essential=0
    Aspirin Crystalline1,8004,50015,750low✓2 brands x 500 units/brand/month base | IQVIA-calibrated: Q1 2025 market=3.77B units, 4.5x scaling; spread=100, gap=80, crowded=0, essential=0
    Diclofenac Sodium Sr1,8004,5006,750low✓2 brands x 500 units/brand/month base | IQVIA-calibrated: Q1 2025 market=3.77B units, 4.5x scaling; spread=0, gap=60, crowded=0, essential=0
    Diclofenac Diethylammonium Salt1,8004,5006,750low✓2 brands x 500 units/brand/month base | IQVIA-calibrated: Q1 2025 market=3.77B units, 4.5x scaling; spread=0, gap=60, crowded=0, essential=0
    Paracetamol Codeine 5002,7006,75023,625low✓3 brands x 500 units/brand/month base | IQVIA-calibrated: Q1 2025 market=3.77B units, 4.5x scaling; spread=100, gap=40, crowded=0, essential=0
    Eachtabletcontains Ibuprofen9002,2503,375low✓1 brands x 500 units/brand/month base | IQVIA-calibrated: Q1 2025 market=3.77B units, 4.5x scaling; spread=0, gap=60, crowded=0, essential=0
    Eachtabletcontains Paracetamol9002,2503,375low✓1 brands x 500 units/brand/month base | IQVIA-calibrated: Q1 2025 market=3.77B units, 4.5x scaling; spread=0, gap=60, crowded=0, essential=0
    Each Gm Naproxen1,8004,5007,740low✓2 brands x 500 units/brand/month base | IQVIA-calibrated: Q1 2025 market=3.77B units, 4.5x scaling; spread=11, gap=60, crowded=0, essential=0
    Ibuprofen Lysine3,6009,00016,380low✓4 brands x 500 units/brand/month base | IQVIA-calibrated: Q1 2025 market=3.77B units, 4.5x scaling; spread=16, gap=60, crowded=0, essential=0
    Ibuprofen Pseudoephedrine 2009002,2503,375low✓1 brands x 500 units/brand/month base | IQVIA-calibrated: Q1 2025 market=3.77B units, 4.5x scaling; spread=0, gap=60, crowded=0, essential=0
    Ibuprofen Pseudoephedrine 4009002,2503,375low✓1 brands x 500 units/brand/month base | IQVIA-calibrated: Q1 2025 market=3.77B units, 4.5x scaling; spread=0, gap=60, crowded=0, essential=0
    Ibuprofen 400 01,8004,50015,750low✓2 brands x 500 units/brand/month base | IQVIA-calibrated: Q1 2025 market=3.77B units, 4.5x scaling; spread=100, gap=60, crowded=0, essential=0
    Ibuprofen 8001,8004,50015,750low✓2 brands x 500 units/brand/month base | IQVIA-calibrated: Q1 2025 market=3.77B units, 4.5x scaling; spread=100, gap=60, crowded=0, essential=0
    Naproxen B P9002,2505,805low✓1 brands x 500 units/brand/month base | IQVIA-calibrated: Q1 2025 market=3.77B units, 4.5x scaling; spread=54, gap=60, crowded=0, essential=0
    Ibuprofen Mg9002,2503,375low✓1 brands x 500 units/brand/month base | IQVIA-calibrated: Q1 2025 market=3.77B units, 4.5x scaling; spread=0, gap=60, crowded=0, essential=0
    Paracetamol 150mglignocaine Analgesic9002,2503,375low✓1 brands x 500 units/brand/month base | IQVIA-calibrated: Q1 2025 market=3.77B units, 4.5x scaling; spread=0, gap=60, crowded=0, essential=0
    Clopidogrel 75mgaspirin1,8004,5007,200low✓2 brands x 500 units/brand/month base | IQVIA-calibrated: Q1 2025 market=3.77B units, 4.5x scaling; spread=5, gap=40, crowded=0, essential=0
    Clopidogrel Aspirin2,7006,75010,800low✓3 brands x 500 units/brand/month base | IQVIA-calibrated: Q1 2025 market=3.77B units, 4.5x scaling; spread=5, gap=25, crowded=0, essential=0
    Clopidogrel Hydrogen Aspirin9002,2503,375low✓1 brands x 500 units/brand/month base | IQVIA-calibrated: Q1 2025 market=3.77B units, 4.5x scaling; spread=0, gap=60, crowded=0, essential=0
    Paracetamol 500mgpseudoephedrine9002,2503,375low✓1 brands x 500 units/brand/month base | IQVIA-calibrated: Q1 2025 market=3.77B units, 4.5x scaling; spread=0, gap=60, crowded=0, essential=0
    Paracetamol 1 Gm9002,2503,375low✓1 brands x 500 units/brand/month base | IQVIA-calibrated: Q1 2025 market=3.77B units, 4.5x scaling; spread=0, gap=60, crowded=0, essential=0
    Paracetamol Mg1,8004,50015,750low✓2 brands x 500 units/brand/month base | IQVIA-calibrated: Q1 2025 market=3.77B units, 4.5x scaling; spread=100, gap=40, crowded=0, essential=0
    Naproxen Sodium1,8004,5006,750low✓2 brands x 500 units/brand/month base | IQVIA-calibrated: Q1 2025 market=3.77B units, 4.5x scaling; spread=0, gap=60, crowded=0, essential=0
    Pepain9002,2503,375low✓1 brands x 500 units/brand/month base | IQVIA-calibrated: Q1 2025 market=3.77B units, 4.5x scaling; spread=0, gap=60, crowded=0, essential=0
    For Pain Relief9002,2503,375low✓1 brands x 500 units/brand/month base | IQVIA-calibrated: Q1 2025 market=3.77B units, 4.5x scaling; spread=0, gap=60, crowded=0, essential=0
    Codeine Paracetamol9002,2503,375low✓1 brands x 500 units/brand/month base | IQVIA-calibrated: Q1 2025 market=3.77B units, 4.5x scaling; spread=0, gap=60, crowded=0, essential=0
    Pain Relieving9002,2503,375low✓1 brands x 500 units/brand/month base | IQVIA-calibrated: Q1 2025 market=3.77B units, 4.5x scaling; spread=0, gap=60, crowded=0, essential=0
    Diclofenac Diethylamine1,8004,5006,750low✓2 brands x 500 units/brand/month base | IQVIA-calibrated: Q1 2025 market=3.77B units, 4.5x scaling; spread=0, gap=60, crowded=0, essential=0
    Chlorpheniramine Paracetamol9002,2503,375low✓1 brands x 500 units/brand/month base | IQVIA-calibrated: Q1 2025 market=3.77B units, 4.5x scaling; spread=0, gap=60, crowded=0, essential=0
    For pharmaceutical intelligence and professional reference only. Not medical advice. No real sales volumes claimed — all figures are demand-proxy estimates with honest ranges.